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As reported at Majority, the Tarrance Group released their third poll in MS-01 since the spring. Not much seems to have changed despite Nunnelee and Childers spending hundreds of thousands of dollars. Their poll still puts Alan Nunnelee with a lead well above the margin of error (51-40) with only one month to go in the race.

From Majority
- Nunnelee holds a 15 point lead among “extremely likely” voters (54-39)

- Nunnelee leads 56-38 among voters who have impressions of both he and Childers

- Of the 75 percent of voters who have seen, read or heard something about the Childers campaign, 43 percent are less likely to vote him based on that information

- 32 percent say Childers deserves re-election

- Republicans maintain a 53-39 edge on the generic Congressional ballot

Though the poll is paid for by Nunnelee, the Tarrance Group has done extensive polling for Haley Barbour and other notable state Republicans in the past. They are a well respected outlet and cannot just go around with polls that show them way off the mark. It hurts them down the road. I have been discounting this poll by about 5 points consistently. Even with that discount, that would still put Nunnelee up by six, which is huge considering that Childers has now spent over half of his cash.

Childers won't let the campaign run out without throwing a haymaker or two. It's coming and likely in the next week or so. Be looking for a DCCC private expenditure featuring some new website. The attack will likely be coordinated and focus on Nunnelee personally. After 16 years in the state legislature, there's probably not much that isn't known about Nunnelee, but that's likely not going to make a difference in the attack.

If Nunnelee does Childers by more than 5 points, look at that to signal Republicans nationally having a big night. If Nunnelee routs Childers (BIG IF), look for Republican gains to top 50 seats.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

As reported before, the author has personally made a reportable contribution in this race.

Posted October 8, 2010 - 3:50 pm

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