Allow me to stand on a soapbox for a moment. Climate "experts" and specifically Hurricane prediction experts suck. They have absolutely no idea what they're talking about as a general rule and history rarely proves any of their predictions right.
For instance, today the Sun Herald published Dr. William Gray's long-awaited prediction for the 2013 hurricane season
. BE CAREFUL
. Allegedly, it's going to be an "above average" year for hurricanes according to Dr. Gray. He's predicting 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 of those major hurricanes and 4 of them making landfall on the US.
Just for giggles, I went back and looked at Dr. Gray's prediction for 2012
. He produced a very scholarly paper in April 2012
that said that 2012 was going to be a below average year. In April, he predicted 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes with 2 of those being major hurricanes. How did that prediction go? Well, we wound up with 19 named storms (much higher than average), with 10 hurricanes and one of those being major. After 2005, they predicted doom and gloom for hurricanes in the following years, and it turned out to not be that bad.
And yet still Dr. Gray's prediction is treated like someone who has this great track record, without mention of the fact that just last year, this scholarly paper completely botched the "prediction", which he conveniently upwardly revised in June 2012.
It's an old tired story in the media. Someone speaks about this or that. It fills the newshole and media lends unquestioned credence to whomever steps up to the microphone without the first bit of fact checking or background work.
Maybe this Dr. Gray is right, but if he is, my sense is more luck is involved than anything else.
Posted May 15, 2013 - 8:12 pm