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RELEASE: Chism Strategies Poll

We have continued to track the GOP Senate Primary runoff. On June 17th and 18th we surveyed 1192 GOP

primary voters statewide. The MOE was +/- 2.85%. Our most recent survey confirms that McDaniel now holds a

lead outside the margin of error.

Which candidate do you plan to support in the June 24th primary?

Thad Cochran 44%
Chris McDaniel 50%
Undecided 6%

On the following pages are the results of our tracking work. We include weighted top lines as well as tables that show results by age and gender.

Important Points to Remember

1. While the surveys are consistent in showing McDaniel’s lead growing among voters from the
June 3rd primary, our work does not measure for the potential growth in turnout.
Cochran’s field efforts in the Delta, DeSoto County, Jackson County and other areas where he underperformed on June 3rd are much more extensive in the runoff.
The GOP establishment is “all in” with TV ads by Governor Bryant, former Senator Lott, and campaign appearances by Senator John McCain.
Cochran’s awkward appeal for Democrats to cross over is unlikely to produce huge results but with so few votes separating the candidates, all new votes are valuable.

2. No survey can fully capture the extent of the backlash among rank and file Republicans to Cochran’s tactics in the runoff.
A 42 year incumbent GOP senator stumping for Democratic and union votes will certainly anger more conservative Republicans.
Cochran’s assemblage of plutocrats has not gone unnoticed by the populists among McDaniel’s base.

3. In a campaign defined by the bizarre, we don’t know what is in store over the next 72 hours.

Example: At the writing of this memo there is yet another firestorm over a Cochran endorsement ad by NFL great Brett Favre whose brother was serving time for a manslaughter conviction before a pardon by former Governor Haley Barbour.


Posted June 20, 2014 - 7:16 am

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