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Whew… Election Day is finally here in Mississippi
Predictions on what's in store today

by Frank Corder
Let's all sing... Hallelujah! Hallelujah!

Election Day 2014 is finally here. I was starting to think this day was just a myth, something that would never arrive.

But here we are.

And while Mississippi and other states are battered and torn from unnecessarily rough Republican primaries in a year where the GOP tide is swelling, we have seemingly come through and are on the verge of an interesting evening if you are a conservative who cares about stifling the liberal policies of President Obama, Harry Reid and the national progressives backing the Democrats across the country, like Travis Childers here in the Magnolia State.

Here's my predictions as we head to the polls today:

Cochran vs. Childers

Republican Thad Cochran will win over Democrat Travis Childers and perennial third partier Shawn O'Hara.

At the last minute, Childers has had some interesting folks step out of the shadows on his behalf. Union Bosses nationwide have thrown last minute money at Childers. Also, liberal Colorado Senator Mark Udall as well as former Governor Ronnie Musgrove and Rep. Bobby Moak have thrown money at their man Childers.

As vengeful Tea Party/McDanielites contort themselves trying to justify a grudge-vote for Childers or O’Hara as “more conservative," it is demonstrating clearly what we said months ago: 1) The Tea Party has become like a missile without a guidance system. 2). They’ve absolutely figured out that they don’t have the numbers to be elected on their own merits.

If nothing else, this Senate race proves conclusively that the rank and file voters in Mississippi that self-identify as Tea Party voters need to wrangle the momentum from the hands of people who call themselves their leaders who are clearly unqualified and undeserving to serve the movement.

At the end of the day, soccer moms who may have voted for McDaniel in the primary just aren’t going to go along with the rhetoric and be coopted to support Obama via a vote for Travis Childers. Word is this very morning from a YP Twitter commenter that Obama did a robocall for the Democrat.

The McDaniel effect will scatter roughly into three chunks, with some not voting, some voting for Childers/O’Hara/McDaniel as a write-in or protest and most “coming home” and supporting the Republican nominee (ThadCochran).

My prediction:

Cochran - 54%
Childers - 43%
O'Hara - 3%

US Senate control

From Alaska to Georgia it appears the Republican Party is poised to make a run at taking control of the US Senate. Intra party struggles in Kansas and Louisiana as well as runoffs in that same bayou state and Georgia may play a factor in the outcome. However, when the dust clears I predict Republicans will achieve that magic 51 total, putting the brakes on Obama and Reid. While the political sun won’t immediately shine in DC, a fully-Republican controlled Congress can better draw the battle lines for 2016 and force Obama’s hand to veto or negotiate. Either way, the cause of conservatism is better served with 51.

Congressional races

All four of Mississippi's US Congressmen - MS01: Nunnelee(R), MS02: Thompson (D), MS03: Harper (R), MS04: Palazzo (R) - will easily cruise to reelection.

The margin of victory may be tighter for Palazzo given the number of candidates in the race and the Tea Party displeasure with the incumbent.

It will be interesting to see if Libertarian Joey Robinson actually draws more votes than Democrat Matt Moore. Some in Coast circles have been predicting that but I'm not sold on that likelihood.

US House

Congressional Republicans had hoped to achieve a 245 seat majority. I don't see that happening. My prediction is closer to 243 as races stand now. You never know. 2010 was a wave election and the tide carried a lot of folks over the line. Palazzo was one of those candidates.

Hunting and Fishing Amendment

There's no way this amendment does not pass in Mississippi. The question is by how much will it become law.

My prediction: 68%, maybe higher


For Election Night commentary and results follow @MSyallpolitics and @frankcorder on Twitter or check back here often for updates.

Now, get to the polls and GO VOTE MISSISSIPPI.

Posted November 4, 2014 - 6:47 am

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