Results from a statewide poll commissioned by Y’allPolitics and conducted by Magellan Strategies BR on Monday evening show that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton both hold commanding leads heading into next week’s presidential primaries. Remarkably, both Trump and Clinton were winning not only by wide margins, but also across most every demographic and voter type.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump appears to hold a commanding lead over his nearest rivals. His support measured 41%. Ted Cruz came in second at 17% closely followed by Marco Rubio at 16%. John Kasich and Ben Carson rounded out the field with 8% and 5% respectively. 13% of GOP voters were undecided. These results seem to track very closely with Super Tuesday results in Tennessee
Among the 16 demographic and geographic subgroups analyzed, Trump maintains a 20 point lead among all but three: age 18-34, age 55-64 and voters in Congressional District 3.
On the Democrat side, buoyed by a 66 point lead among African-American voters, it appears that the Clinton southern fire wall is holding strong. Overall, among likely Democrat primary voters, Clinton holds a 54 point lead (65% Clinton/11% Sanders/24% undecided). As with Trump’s lead in the Mississippi GOP Primary, Clinton’s lead transcends the entire spectrum of likely Democratic primary voters. The only bright spot for Sanders is among likely Democratic primary voters who consider themselves independent. However, even among independents, which represent 21% of likely Democratic primary voters, Clinton leads by 17 points (41% Clinton/24% Sanders/35% undecided).
The poll also measured Mississippians attitudes on three other key issues.
On filling the Scalia US Supreme Court vacancy, Republican primary voters support waiting for the next president’s nomination by 79% to 17%. Democrat voters support considering President Obama’s nomination now by 73% to 19%.
On the state flag issue, GOP voters oppose changing the flag 61% to 20% with 15% undecided. Democrat voters support changing the flag 49% to 19% with 24% undecided.
Finally, voters were asked whether or not they supported an increase in gasoline taxes to raise revenue exclusively for roads and transportation improvement costs. Republicans in this poll narrowly supported the tax increase 43% to 37% with 20% undecided. Democrats were also in favor by 42% to 26% with 33% undecided.
Fielded February 29, 2016, this Mississippi statewide survey which was conducted for Y’allPolitics by Magellan Strategies BR to measure support for GOP and Democrat candidates for the March 8, 2016 presidential primary. This was an automated telephone survey was stratified to reflect historic primary voting demographics. Overall, 995 likely Republican primary voters were interviewed. A survey of this size has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%. Also, 471 likely Democratic primary voters were interviewed. A survey of this size has a margin of error of +/- 4.5%.
Toplines can be downloaded here
YallPolitics 2016 Primary Poll - Toplines
Crosstabs can be downloaded here
YallPolitics Primary Poll 2016 Xtabs
Posted March 2, 2016 - 9:04 pm