With just two weeks to go before the election, Mason Dixon published their fourth poll of this gubernatorial cycle featuring matchups between Republican Lt. Gov Tate Reeves and Democrat Attorney General Jim Hood. Statewide, voters polled selected Reeves by 3 points over Hood, 46-43. 9% were undecided and 2% polled selected third party candidates. Polling has moved substantially in Reeves direction vis a vis Hood since December 2017.
Going deeper into the numbers, Reeves’ net favorables were higher than Hood’s. Reeves’ fav/unfav was 41/26 (+15) as compared to that of Hood’s 39/29 (+10).
President Trump also remains a political force in the state. His job approval numbers were 54/42 (approve/disapprove), and 56% opposed impeachment proceedings as opposed to only 34% of Mississippians that support his impeachment. Trump will be in Tupelo on November 1 to campaign for Reeves.
If accurate, this poll holds some revelations about voter sentiment in Mississippi.
- Reeves is ahead of Hood after being behind Hood consistently in the 22 months leading up to the election in February (44/42) and in April 2018 (44/39).
- It appears that after a fractious Republican primary and after the battle lines for the general election are better defined, Republican voters are coming home for Reeves. Reeves pulled 82% of Republicans as opposed to Hood who pulled 87% of Democrats.
- Trump is still a formidable influence on the electorate, especially in the north and eastern parts of the state where this election will likely be most closely contested. It could be argued that Trump endorsement of Reeves is already having an effect.
With Hood and Reeves essentially equal for TV purchases down the home stretch, it appears at this point that money will not make the difference in this race.
A total of 625 registered Mississippi voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All said they were likely to vote in the November 2019 statewide general election. Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Mississippi voter registration list that included both land line and cell phone numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turnout by county. The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 4 percentage points.
The election is on November 5th.