The nationally recognized poll analysis site FiveThirtyEight believes Republican incumbent U.S. Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith is “clearly favored to win Mississippi’s Senate election.”
In fact, Hyde-Smith’s numbers are outperforming President Donald Trump’s in the site’s General Election predictions.
Using a model that simulates the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often, a sample of 100 outcomes gives Hyde-Smith a 91 out of 100 chance of winning re-election over Democrat challenger Mike Espy.
Hyde-Smith was given a 95% chance of winning the race throughout August and early September.
FiveThirtyEight is currently predicting that Hyde-Smith will defeat Espy in the November 3rd General Election drawing 54.9% of the popular vote, leaving Espy with 43.2% and Libertarian Jimmy Edwards with 1.8%.
The two met in the 2018 special election to fill the U.S. Senate vacancy left by retiring Senator Thad Cochran with Hyde-Smith winning 54% to 46%.
The current 2020 prediction would have Hyde-Smith increase her share of the vote while Espy would fall short of his 2018 tally despite his latest efforts at drawing in national donors and higher profile Democrats to back his campaign.
The site also predicted a win for President Donald Trump in Mississippi, giving the President an 87% chance of winning over Democrat nominee Joe Biden.
Mississippi’s Third Congressional District race was rated, as well, by FiveThirtyEight. Incumbent Republican Congressman Michael Guest is predicted to win at a rate of 99% over Democrat challenger Dorothy Benford. Guest is expected to win 66% of the popular vote.
FiveThirtyEight looks to rate the First Congressional District race between incumbent Republican Congressman Trent Kelly and Democrat Antonia Eliason, but the site has not been updated yet.