To read the headlines and all the polls, Barack Obama is on his way to certain coronation (or annointment as the case may be) as the next United States President. The media would have you believe that “there’s nothing to see here” and there is certainly every reason to despair if you are a John McCain/Sarah Palin supporter.
However, from the YallPolitics award-winning Memory Division, some simple truths emerge. How soon we forget . . .
Just four short years ago, Senator John Kerry was running his victory lap and measuring the drapes for the Oval Office at about this time in the campaign. The polls had him up in most key swing states. Nationally, in a three way race (including Nader), Kerry was way up in the polls. Quinnipiac had Kerry up 6 points over George W. Bush on October 22, 2004 in a three way poll and he was +5 head to head.
TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)
Kerry Bush Else Vote DK/NA Oct 28, 2004 45 44 – – 10 Oct 22, 2004 47 41 – 1 10 Sep 28, 2004 46 41 1 1 11 Aug 18, 2004 48 43 1 2 6 Jul 14, 2004 49 42 1 1 7
The bottom line is with all of the trending against Republicans, Kerry couldn’t put George Bush away. Neither could Al Gore, and the polls looked almost identical in 2000.
Now, I honestly don’t know who’s gonna win this thing. However, I do believe that the US is a “center-right” country. The last two Democrat Presidents (Carter and Clinton) had to play big time to the center-right and neither would have won without them. Obama has completely eschewed the center-right, opting instead to whip the hard left into such an absolute frenzy that new folks will come out in droves. So far, in the polling, it’s worked.
My prediction is this thing will tighten up substantially, and that it’s anyone’s call. Remember, liberal Democrats cannot hide what they really think. “Joe the Plumber” and “spreading the wealth” is a real phenomenon. Average working people are seriously identifying with “Joe”. Just like John Kerry, who based his campaign on “soaking the rich” class/tax warfare, Obama runs the very serious risk of the middle figuring out that the taxman tolls for them.