You wouldn’t know it by watching TV or listening to the radio, but there’s a statewide election in 6 weeks.
Think to yourself… When’s the last time you heard a radio ad or saw a TV ad for a candidate? It was likely back in August. YesOn26 (the Personhood Amendment) has been about the only thing political running on TV, and it’s been light.
Republicans are ahead by just about every metric imaginable statewide. And whether it’s due to lack of money or any of the potentially competitive Democratic candidates (DuPree, Moran, or Gill) making any sort of a real challenge to date, it’s hard to believe that the GOP won’t certainly have 7 of 8 statewide elected officials again. Breaking late when you’re behind is almost always a losing strategy. Money has yet to fall from the sky for Jim Hood’s challenger, Steve Simpson, and unless it does (which it might), it will be hard to see Simpson unseat Hood.
One other thing to consider is that while Barack Obama is thinking about 2012 politics and talking about raising taxes, a few states like Mississippi and Louisiana have elections this year. That will be toxic for folks running with a D by their name. And remember, ALL DEMOCRATS in Mississippi are required to support their candidate for President (Obama). Just ask George Dale… He didn’t and Dems tried to eject him from the ballot in 2007.
Bottom line – campaign finance reports will be out on October 10 for the period ending September 30. That will tell us what’s going on. Watch for a couple of things… Look to see what Johnny DuPree has raised. That will tell you a lot about the Democratic Party strategy.
Democratic insiders have privately given up about DuPree actually winning. They know Bryant cannot be beat. The question is how to run that race. DuPree could be the counterbalance to Personhood, Voter ID and Eminent Domain to try and beef up House districts that depend heavily on black voter turnout, but to date he has not. Any DuPree dollars could be funneled straight into those shaky House campaigns. There have been rumors of big pots of out of state money out there, but my bet is that they are just rumors and nothing more.
Also look at reports for Connie Moran and Steve Simpson to see what sort of traction as underdogs they’re getting. Money talks in elections.
It’s awful quiet out there right now, but there are still some reasonably stout campaign accounts that are all about to get spent in the next 40 days.
We will be watching.