We are now under 50 days until Election Day 2012. I cannot stress the importance of this day enough as it pertains to the future of our uniquely American experiment.
Please excuse the cliche but Tuesday, November 6, truly is the most pivotal election of our lifetime. Sitting on the sidelines isn’t an option.
Let’s see how things are shaping up…
In the race for the White House, President Barack Obama (D) and Governor Mitt Romney (R) are essentially deadlocked, struggling to capture those who have yet to commit.
Most polls show Obama with the edge, some even as high as 7 points. But in the latest Rasmussen poll, Romney is attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide while Obama sits at 45%. The other 8% don’t like either of them or are still weighing their options.
One piece of information that was curious in this latest Rasmussen poll was the statement that 85% of conservatives support Romney and 91% of liberals support Obama.
That is a troublesome statistic if it holds true. Such a stat reeks of a hesitation about or lack of enthusiasm for the candidate, in this case Romney. For Republicans to win the White House, they will need to solidify that conservative vote and push those numbers up quickly.
My suspicion is that if Romney were to be a bit more aggressive he could ensure conservative support. Perhaps this will come during the debates. But being bolder comes with the chance of turning off those voters that have yet to find their true north, the ones that are still blowing in the wind and distaste any form of negativity even if it is truth. Striking the right balance continues to be Romney’s challenge.
If I had to rate the Presidential race, I would rate it a toss up with a slight advantage to Obama, even though it pains me terribly to write that.
For Republicans, winning the White House would be a huge win; there’s no denying that. But the truth is that without flipping the U.S. Senate it may all be for naught.
Senate Democrats now sit at 53 seats (this includes 51 Democrats and 2 independents that caucus with them). Senate Republicans must win a net of three seats to achieve a split chamber at 50-50 and then hope beyond hope a Republican Vice President is seated.
Of the 33 Senate races up for grabs on Election Day, Democrats control 23. Of those 23, 7 are open seats and obviously lean Democrat.
Ten Republican seats are on the ballot with 4 of them being open seats. Democrats may very well pick up at least 1 of these 4 in Maine with Sen. Olympia Snowe’s retirement.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has said the GOP has a 50/50 chance of winning the Senate. As a realist and someone who has reviewed more than a few polls across the country while researching candidates and their campaigns, I’m not that optimistic as it stands currently.
At this point, I would rate the U.S. Senate as leans Democrat (although I hope I’m wrong).
U.S. House of Representatives:
Republicans should maintain control of the House barring any damning revelations.
While some paint the gridlock in D.C. as a bad thing, and it can be, conservatives cannot ask for much more with a liberal controlled upper chamber. For the most part the House GOPers have offered solutions and reforms that ultimately meet their demise in the Senate.
I hope that a majority of Americans understand this dynamic and will send House Republicans back into leadership on Election Day and give them some help by placing Republicans in the majority in the Senate.
Down in Mississippi:
Here in the Magnolia State, all four Congressmen – Alan Nunnelee (R-MS01), Benny Thompson (D-MS02), Gregg Harper (R-MS03) and Steven Palazzo (R-MS04) – will return to the Beltway. Senator Roger Wicker (R) will also sail through with ease.
As for the Mississippi Supreme Court races, Chief Justice Bill Waller (Central) and Justice Mike Randolph (Southern) will go back to the bench.
The Northern District Supreme Court race will be the one to watch. Richard “Flip” Phillips and Josiah Coleman square off in a battle defined by age as much as it is by judicial philosophy. There is a clear choice between conservative and liberal despite it being a non-partisan race. Coleman is the conservative candidate while Phillips makes Cottonmouth drool.
Dates to keep in mind:
* October 3 – Presidential Debate on Domestic Policy
* October 6 – The last day to register to vote in the November 6 Election.
* October 11 – Vice Presidential Debate
* October 16 – Presidential Debate on Domestic and Foreign Policy (townhall format)
* October 22 – Presidential Debate on Foreign Policy
* November 6 – Election Day 2012
Yall Politics will continue to track Election 2012 and pass along news, analysis and commentary in an effort to keep Mississippi informed.