Well, we’re here. Election Day.
First things first. Go vote.
Here’s how I see things breaking out.
I think Alan Nunnelee (whom I have donated to) beats Travis Childers. I will venture a guess and say by 4 points, but I think it could be more than that. With Childers only winning wiht 54% in 2008, he didn’t have that far to fall out of contention. Nunnelee has run a great campaign and I think he beats him.
Bennie Thompson will beat Bill Marcy. Marcy is a good guy and he certainly has some energy courtesy of the Mississippi Tea Party, but as a candidate, he didn’t do enough. He needed to raise serious money to be a contender and he didn’t do it. The polling from this JME Enterprises from Lousiana I believe will prove to be farcical. I don’t even think this one will be that close. Thompson by 10 points or more.
Gregg Harper in a walk-away. I would’ve thought that democrats would not run Joel Gill who hasn’t moved into MS-3 since the last time he ran for it (and didn’t live in it then either). Harper should approach 70% and I think his vote total will reflect the great job he has done as a freshman.
This is the hard one and turnout will mean everything. Remember that Gene Taylor had 75% of the vote in 2008 against a basically no-name R opponent. Steven Palazzo has run a fantastic race and is a palateable alternative, but Taylor had an awfully long way to fall. There is definitely a “fire the incumbents mood”. Valid polling shows that Palazzo can win based on the turnout model. I hate making a contingent prediction, but here’s mine. I think that Palazzo will be Taylor IF Nunnelee beats Childers by 7 points or more. These races share a lot of dynamics. I think it’s going to take that kind of mood to raise the tide high enough to unseat Taylor. If Nunnelee squeaks by in MS-1, I believe Palazzo will fall just short.
There are obviously lots of races on the national scene. I believe the Republicans will retake congress with close to 60 seats (marginally better than the concensus projections). I believe the Democrats will hang onto the Senate by two votes. Haley Barbour will wind up being the belle of the national media ball tonight when Republicans take over 30 Governors seats (including Ohio).
Locally, there are lots of judicial races that I won’t go into. We have covered the Donna Barnes – Kelly Mims race for Court of Appeals. Barnes is the incumbent appointed and supported by Haley Barbour. Mims is a personal injury lawyer from Tupelo who has stirred some controversy in this race by trying to use Barbour’s image and implying his support. Barbour has been steadily raising money for Barnes and even did a robocall for her the other day. I think Barnes wins this race, too.
There you have it. Put your predictions below, but most importantly . . . GO VOTE.