Back in April, I made some predictions about this general election Tuesday. Let’s revisit and update.
April Prediction. Haley Barbour re-elected in a walk and he will get 60%.
No changes here. I think the way he will get to 60% or extremely close to it has changed a bit. Haley will have a record number of votes for a Republican statewide candidate, and he will have a record number of black voters, which is fantastic news for the rise of the State GOP. It is something Barbour has worked very hard for. However, Eaves will not pull his base on the D side. The true “progressive” types are eschewing the Eaves pitch, and I know many hardened Ds that will not pull the lever for Eaves. In fact, I don’t think that Eaves will be the top vote getter on the D side of the ledger. I think that distinction will go to Jim Hood.
If Haley does get to 60%, I think you will start to see some unexpected upsets on the R side of the ledger on Tuesday night, primarily in legislative races.
April Prediction. Bryant v. Ross in the primary is too close to call, but the winner will be the next Lieutenant Governor.
Well, as we know, Bryant vs. Ross was not as close as I thought back then. But I still think the winner of that race, Phil Bryant, will cruise to victory at or above 55%.
There has been a lot of talk early about what a fantastic candidate Franks would be. I didn’t see it then and don’t see it now. He has been a lackluster candidate unable to marshall the resources for a real race. His message has been stagnant and his campaign has not reacted at all to the polling that put him clearly down in double digits. Fortunately, it looks like he will be moving back into private law practice soon.
SECRETARY OF STATE
Prediction. Delbert Hosemann will be elected in a close primary (possibly a runoff) and a relatively easy general election.
Nailed this one. Delbert just squeaked by in the primary to avoid a runoff. However, he will roll over Rob Smith, likely by close to double digits. The fact that Smith is from Rankin County (a R hotbed), might sneak a couple of points from Hosemann, but Hosemann’s media campaign supported by the financial resources he worked so hard to raise will be too much for Smith.
Prediction. Tate Reeves raises more money, has continued success as Treasurer, and strengthens his position for higher office in 2011.
This one was easy. Next!
April Prediction. The power of incumbency keeps Hood in office in a closer than expected contest.
Hopkins showed signs of life at Neshoba, but didn’t resurface for another 6 weeks. The state GOP has pumped over $600K into Hopkins campaign, but Hood has used earned media well and should win in the 55% range.
However, several things have surfaced during this cycle that may create problems for Hood down the road. Judge Acker’s inquiry into the actions Hood’s friend, Dicky Scruggs, may affect him later.
April Prediction. With Haley at the top of the ticket and Pickering?s name ID and political machine, Stacey Pickering will be your next Auditor.
I still think this to be the case. I don’t think this will be a huge numerical win (52 or 53%), but Pickering should win this one given his name ID, prior distinguished elective service and noticable media campaign.
April Prediction. The power of incumbency keeps Spell in office.
I still think Spell wins here. There is a scenario that says that Cole and Riley could take away a majority of the popular vote from Spell. However, even in that scenario where Spell is clearly the top vote getter and misses majority by a couple of points, the state House would be hard pressed to decide that election another way. Bottom line, I still think Spell will win, albeit an ugly win.
April Prediction. This race will likely come down to Dale vs. Chaney. Either way, Barbour wins.
I certainly didn’t forsee Dickie Scruggs that involved in the Dale vs. Anderson primary, and it was a difference maker as Dale won by less than two points. However, I still think Chaney is the favorite against Anderson. Anderson has not run a very good campaign (harkening back to his lackluster performance in the 2003 Treasurer’s race against Tate Reeves), and is not impressive on the stump.
Chaney has good name ID with his “sue-happy” campaign ad. I think he wins at 52 or 53%.
There has been a good bit of chatter that the State Senate (currently with 27 Repubs and 25 Dems) will flip to Democratic Control by a two vote margin. Given the dynamics at the top of the ticket, I think it will be a tie at 26/26 giving Republicans the tie breaking vote with the election of Phil Bryant.
There are too many dynamics in play to specifically predict the House outcome. There are a lot of folks that will be watching the outcome to try and see whether or not Jeff Smith has a chance to unseat Speekah Billy McCoy. To the extent that candidates are able to make their races as referendum between Haley Barbour and Billy McCoy, that will improve their odds of success.
And just like in 2003, remember that the election doesn’t end on election day. Haley Barbour and Jim Herring were successful in picking off several Democrats to switch parties. If the Republicans get 7 of 8 statewide offices, pragmatic Democrats may see the writing on the wall.
Remember to go vote on Tuesday, November 6. That’s why we do all of this stuff to begin with.