HARRISON: The court’s ruling sets up interesting election dynamics

For the most part, the Democrats who would have been aided have in past elections prevailed in tough contests against Republicans. The question is can they prevail again during a time when momentum seems to be on the Republicans’ side in the state?

On the other hand, the 2010 census, which led to the need to redistrict in the first place, revealed that the demographics of numerous districts currently held by Republicans have shifted dramatically. Those districts now have a much larger African-American population than they did when they were drawn in 2002. And blacks tend to vote Democratic by a wide margin.

Numerous Republican incumbents for the first time could have a legitimate Democratic opponent in a district where there is a much larger Democratic base than when they were first elected. Some of those districts currently held by Republicans now are majority black or close to it.

The same can be said of the 52-member Senate. In the plan the Senate approved in 2011 but did not become law because of partisan bickering, the black populations in numerous districts currently held by Republicans are reduced.

NEMS 360
5/18/11