Notes on the State of Politics

As we noted in our immediate reaction to the June 3 primary that saw neither candidate win a majority, we view McDaniel as the favorite heading into Tuesday’s runoff; the few polls of the contest generally agree. Additionally, history has shown that many incumbents in runoffs who have failed to get over the 50% hump in party primaries have struggled in the second round of balloting. Moreover, it seems likely that McDaniel’s supporters are more motivated to show up in large numbers for the runoff, an election that will almost certainly have lower turnout than the primary.

Larry Sabato
6/19/14