I continue to believe that national winds will be the deciding factor in the Congressional elections in the First and Fourth. Meaning, if Republicans disappoint and maybe gain a dozen seats I could see Travis Childers and Gene Taylor both winning another term (Taylor more easily than Childers). If Republicans have gains from the two to three dozen range, there is little hope for Childers while Taylor most likely wins. If we have the gains of 50 plus and the GOP really does win by 10 points, both Taylor and Childers are gone. That is just the nature of House races. That said, we will also most likely see members or candidates buck the trend.
Let’s say both Childers and Taylor do that- and win re-election- while there party drops around three dozen seats. Republicans need 39 seats to capture the majority and guarantee a Republican Speaker (assuming all Republicans stay in line and we have no reason to think otherwise).