Dave Dennis and The GOP Primary Vote

Of the many stories that have been written about Dave Dennis’ planned run for governor in 2011, one of the many themes that is touched upon is that lack of statewide officeholders from the Coast, and the perceived biased against the region from the rest of the state.

If Dennis were to win the GOP primary, I would put my money on his chances in the general election given the overall partisan tilt of the state and the lack of strong Democratic challengers.

That said, defeating Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant in the Republican primary is no easy task. Bryant, once the only Republican in statewide office, has been elected three times now and cruised to both a primary and general election win in 2007 against credible opponents.

Matched up head-to-head you would think Bryant would defeat Dennis (and that is a fair assessment at this point I believe), but the Republican primary voters are still the minority during the primaries, and don’t exactly resemble the overall electorate- especially in terms of geography. And this imbalance may be a great advantage to Dennis.

Majority in Miss.
3/31/01