Moak’s math: state House is in play for Democrats

State House Democratic Leader Bobby Moak, in a letter seeking donations for his Leadership PAC, says “the polls and data we are looking at show us that NOW there is opportunity for Democrats to regain the House” in 2015.

Republicans hold a 66-56 majority in the House, after the GOP took control of the chamber in 2011 for the first time since Reconstruction.

Moak breaks down “The Math”:

There are 43 Republican and 40 Democratic seats guaranteed election this year since there is no competitive general election taking place in them. That leaves 39 seats to be decided in November. Of those 39 seats we have recruited strong Democratic challengers in the 23 Republican seats where our chances are the greatest. There are only 8 Democratic incumbents being challenged. 2 of those are considered safe and the remaining 6 are favorable to Democrats. The remaining 8 seats are new or open districts and 3 of those are safe for Democrats as well. This puts us at a distinct advantage, so much so that recently Republican Austin Barbour conceded that “the House is in play.”