There’s a 108 percent chance Cochran would win if he runs

Isaw a recent forecast saying there’s a 99 percent chance U.S. Sen. Thad Cochran would be re-elected if he runs again in 2014.

No disrespect to famed election picker Nate Silver, of the must-read FiveThirtyEight political calculus blog, but I think he’s off on this one by just a smidgen. Silver’s latest take on Cochran is overly conservative by giving a Democratic candidate even a 1 percent chance of winning Cochran’s seat from him.

I got out my Texas Instruments calculator and did my own, much less sought-after forecast, based on a new secret mathematical formula I developed. It’s all very scientific, trust me. I’m a math virtuoso.

The Michael Newsom probability calculation shows a 108 percent chance Cochran would be re-elected.

Sun Herald
7/20/13