Although the Mississippi primary showed Barack Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton 61 to 31 percent, recent research polls show John McCain has a strong lead over Obama in a state that is 39 percent African-American. Mississippi is the only state with this large an African-American percentage, according to the 2000 census.
With 70 percent of the Democratic vote being African-American voters, it is no surprise how Obama lead Clinton. The question is this: How will Clinton’s votes be distributed between Obama and McCain? Some say African-American voters who voted Clinton will stay Democratic and vote for Obama, while the older generation is thought to follow McCain. It could be anyone’s game.
It’s “racially polarized,” as CNN called it. Only two other states were as clearly defined — Alabama, just east of Mississippi — and Arkansas, Clinton’s former home state. Mississippi is considered a Republican state, as no Democrat has won the state since 1976 when Jimmy Carter ran for President.
Rasmussen shows McCain with an 80 percent chance of winning Mississippi’s six votes in November.
Pollsters Rasmussen Reports (5/29/08) McCain over Obama 50 over 44.
Research 2000 (5/23/08) Research 2000 shows McCain is the favorite 54% to Obamas 39%.
Survey USA (3/6/08) gave McCain the lead over Obama 54% to 41%.