For the most part, the seats considered most vulnerable to switching parties are being ignored by both sides — a sign that they may well be lost causes. Most of the districts targeted thus far are considered second-tier pickups — the seats that will almost certainly make the difference between Republicans winning 39 seats, and not.
There’s any number of ways to slice and dice the data but we decided to break them down into three categories: districts where both committees are up with ads, districts where only Democrats are running commercials and districts where only Republicans are on TV.
Districts where the DCCC AND NRCC are on TV
There are a dozen districts that fit this category — 11 are held by Democrats and one is currently in the GOP column.
The districts are: Michigan’s 7th, Pennsylvania’s 11th, Alabama’s 2nd, Pennsylvania’s 3rd, Missouri’s 4th, Mississippi’s 1st, South Carolina’s 5th, Michigan’s 1st, Wisconsin’s 7th, Washington’s 3rd and Illinois’ 10th and Illinois’s 14th.
Of the 12 seats on that list, four are held by Democratic freshmen, four are open seats and three are held by veteran Democrats, including committee chairmen in Spratt and Skelton.
A majority of the 12 seats — seven — were carried by President Obama in 2008.
What’s perhaps more interesting is that most of those seats — with the exceptions of perhaps Childers, Stupak and Baird — are considered (or had been considered) second-tier GOP targets.