The Hill conducted an interesting analysis of how the most vulnerable House Democrats have voted at the beginning of the 111th Congress.
The most likely members to break with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi aren’t too surprising, given that they hail from very conservative districts. Rep. Bobby Bright (D-Ala.) voted with Republicans on 13 out of 15 key votes, while Rep. Walt Minnick (D-Idaho) voted with the GOP on 10 of 15. Their political futures depend on creating their own identity, separate from the interests of the national Democratic Party.
Reps. Travis Childers (D-Miss.), Parker Griffith (D-Ala.), Frank Kratovil Jr. (D-Md.) and Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) were also notable mavericks, breaking with their party on eight key votes.
A few surprises: Rep. Zack Space (D-Ohio), representing a rural eastern Ohio district that gave John McCain 53 percent of the vote, has supported Pelosi’s positions on every major legislative item. Rep. Mark Schauer (D-Mich.), another swing-district Democrat, joined with the Democratic leadership on all the key votes.
See The Hills scorecard here: http://thehill.com/images/stories/news/2009/june/chart_.pdf