In 2008, many pundits in the Mississippi political and editorial elite made the case that one of the reasons that Travis Childers (D) should be elected was that he would be a member of the already established majority and would curry more favor with Nancy Pelosi and hence have more influence. This wasn’t a major campaign platform waged by the Childers campaign, but it was put forth in the press as part of their logic for endorsements.
The political and economic environments post-Obamacare, Stimulus I and II and in the midst of the worst recession in decades are now substantially different. Politico is now reporting that Democrats privately are increasingly confident that the House of Representatives will wind up in Republican control.
Top Democrats are growing markedly more pessimistic about holding the House, privately conceding that the summertime economic and political recovery they were banking on will not likely materialize by Election Day.
In conversations with more than two dozen party insiders, most of whom requested anonymity to speak candidly about the state of play, Democrats in and out of Washington say they are increasingly alarmed about the economic and polling data they have seen in recent weeks.
They no longer believe the jobs and housing markets will recover – or that anything resembling the White House’s promise of a “recovery summer” is under way
In other words, the massive spending has not stimulated the economy and the public doesn’t really seem to buy now that it would be a lot worse had they not spent a trillion dollars. Given that beltway Democrats in the know are almost conceding the House, there’s are a couple of salient questions to ask.
Would Mississippians be now better served to elect Republicans who look increasingly like they will now operate in the majority in the House? Would freshman Republican house members have more influence as members of the majority than more tenured Democrats?
It’s food for thought. It will be interesting to see if the same folks who made that argument in 2008 stick with that logic in 2010 or simply justify their wishes with other arguments.