The race was tight in May and June, but Wicker had begun pulling away over the summer. In August he led 47% to 42%.
Any incumbent who polls less than 50% is generally considered to be in political danger.
Mississippi is in the unusual position of having two U.S. Senate races this year due to Lott’s retirement. In December, Governor Haley Barbour named Wicker to Lott’s seat until a special election could be held. In the other Mississippi Senate race, longtime Republican incumbent Thad Cochran enjoys a sizable lead.
Wicker, a congressman for 12 years, is viewed favorably by 59% of the state’s voters, unfavorably by 36%. Musgrove, a former governor, has 51% favorables and 44% unfavorables.
Wicker has the support of 87% of Republicans and seven percent (7%) of Democrats. Musgrove is backed by 90% of Democrats and 10% of GOP voters. Unaffiliated voters give a 12-point edge to Wicker.
The Republican leads among men by 19 points, while his opponent has 12-point margin among women.
With the first African-American presidential candidate of a major party at the top of the ticket, Musgrove has the support of 96% of black voters in Mississippi. Seventy-four percent (74%) of white voters support Wicker.
Rasmussen Markets data gives Wicker a 63.0% chance of reelection in November. This figure is updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants.