OK, I am going to go ahead and get on record. I think that by Election Day 2010 . . .
1. Gene Taylor (MS-4) will up the ante on his support to repeal Obamacare and put his vote for Pelosi officially up in the air. I think this would be a signal of how much he fears Steven Palazzo and the current environment. If he does this, he’ll likely be the first to do it and it will be a major ground shift.
2. I think that Travis Childers (MS-1) will begin to talk around an Obamacare repeal pledge, but won’t commit. I think other Democrats (especially challengers) will make that commitment just to stay on the right side of voters. Childers will likely try and have it both ways (look like he wants it, but not to flip-flop on earlier statements opposing the repeal).
3. I think that Travis Childers (MS-1) will also begin to hint that he doesn’t know whether or not he’ll support Nancy Pelosi (likely implying that he doesn’t know if she will even run).
If you see either 2 or 3 from Childers, know that the panic button will have been officially hit. Given that he’s taken money from Pelosi in this cycle, that’s going to be extremely hard for him to do. I think something along the lines of 2 and 3 will happen in MS-1, but it will be in the last two weeks of October.