We have several friends in the Jackson Mayor’s race but no candidates who are clients. We are intrigued by the dynamics of this race and have decided to do some survey work for public dissemination.

Wednesday night we conducted a random sample survey of 500 Jackson voter households. We asked about candidate preference and strength of support. The chart below and the attached spreadsheets detail the findings.

Brief Observations:

· The race is very fluid. Based on this work and other surveys we have seen, at least four people are seriously in contention for the runoff.

· As Jere Nash observed recently, Frank Melton’s trial and the flap over his residency may have boosted his numbers considerably. (This survey occurred on Wednesday– Melton hired a new police chief that day.)

· If the election were today, Melton would almost certainly be in the runoff. A rematch from 4 years ago is not implausible.

· This will all change a lot when the candidates go up on TV and radio and hit the streets with canvassers.

· Again, this is all fluid. For example, a few minutes ago Crisler got McMillan’s endorsement and we understand that fundraising is beginning to pick up for Crisler, Hohrn and Johnson.

STAY TUNED

Which candidate would you support?

Candidate
%

Crisler
18%

Johnson
20%

Hohrn
6%

Melton
27%

Fair
5%

Other Candidate
11%

Undecided
12%

Grand Total
100%

How certain are you of your decision?

%
Strength of Support

Candidate
Not Sure
2
Somewhat Sure
4
Abso lutely Sure

Crisler
17%
24%
28%
27%
13%

Johnson
3%
29%
18%
25%
21%

Hohrn
5%
11%
7%
11%
5%

Melton
15%
11%
11%
25%
35%

Fair
5%
8%
4%
3%
6%

Other Candidate
8%
13%
21%
7%
11%

Undecided
46%
5%
12%
3%
9%

Grand Total
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

About the survey. This sample of 500 voter phone households includes 70 completed surveys in Ward 1 and 65 in each of the other wards. This is a rough approximation of historical voter registration and turnout. We have not weighted the survey by voter frequency, gender or age. The pivot tables in the attached chart may be manipulated to see ward-by-ward results. We caution you not to draw too many conclusions by ward as these sample sizes are small. You can also adjust the pivot tables to see survey results by race.

Methodology We used an interactive, automated call with keypad responses to record results. As the name suggests, our ZATAPULSE takes the pulse of the electorate. It is not an “MRI”. It is a useful tool for short surveys of this nature and has been used in more than 200 races across the country. We employ the same methodology as Survey USA or Rasmussen. Still, the tool has limits. We caution you that this race is very fluid and that each candidate is likely to have a more robust, internal poll. Nonetheless, we are confident that this is the most accurate, timely information that is publicly available.

Zata 3 Release
4/3/9